Property market is bearish, bearish stock market, bearish on China - Mr. Zhuge not poor

 Economic forecasting is one of the most nonsense stuff, if you do not put it Sike at a point in time or a certain time period, it said it right, also; it wrong, it wrong. Also cited as another big brother Andy Xie an economic big brother's words, it .<><> next 3 years China's property market will fall trend! start? this point in time according to different cities will be different, Shenzhen, starting from November 2007 has been dropped, Beijing will in early 2009 (that is, about half a year after the Olympics), the Shanghai of the ), others like Chengdu, Chongqing, Hangzhou and other gains in the first 2 years of fierce city, generally would be in step with Beijing .<><> reasons: 1. national macro-control (mainly monetary tightening and the increase the fitness room, low-cost housing construction efforts );<><> 2. good out to do (more people will see thousands of road wearing a halo of the not so big driver, in addition to building a bunch of little to spend after the various venues );<><> 3. economic slowdown (the largest foreign trade situation is getting serious coach, a coach second The basic infrastructure that are engaged in the practice should not engage in these years also came up, but prices have continued to labor cost inflation and a trial of strength increase );<><> 4. increasingly heavy foreign aggression (RMB revaluation remains the same, interest rate remains the same, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, weak dollar, oil, gold is far from the peak of the global economic situation is grim );<><> 5. people pocket money (in fact is the most fundamental, previously called the number of how many trillion in deposits, last year I have been discussed in the article, away with the government, corruption, and the rich, foreign hot money, the rest of the civilian population's really very little we . the need housing money, the rich do not need room, and did not dare then money into something like that to speculation .)<><> Conclusion: The low I see is: 3 years later housing sub-regions, on average, no more than now (March 25, 2008) present a high !<><><> China's stock market bull market has done in the next 3 years will be overshadowed by the bear market! Since March, the stock market with new low, a road crossing is below, at the same time by some This multi-cycle times,UGG boots clearance, whether it is funds, or private, or drink wine like the gall to xx ye to it, I do not play the !Yes ?);<><> to access disk 2. Government can do to leaders and their biggest headache now is how to maintain high economic growth, but also suppressed the current inflation situation is grim. As bailout, in an increasingly market-oriented self-regulation to promote today, but also how to save? really reduced or abolition of stamp duty? I think the Government has not fallen below 2,Discount UGG boots,500 points before, this is unlikely, because it can only be increased size of the non-lifting of the ban of the ;> 3. high growth performance of listed companies can not be sustained (06,07 on the performance of many listed companies have repeatedly exceeded expectations, it is because before 2006 most of the performance of listed companies are rubbish, plus 2 years ago good economic situation and the improvement of internal management, the short term than expected to maintain rapid growth is normal. There is also a considerable part of performance is dependent on investment income, the investment income is unsustainable, the stock market a good time to the lucrative nature, the stock market fell naturally will turn into bad debts and losses. the final analysis, because most of the listed companies failed to support its high growth rate of the core technology and innovation );<><> 4. hot money outflow (where the flow of money to Where are the fundamental depends on the help of their money. A few years ago there are indeed hundreds of billions of dollars of hot money from abroad through normal and abnormal way into China's stock and property markets, has accelerated the bubble, when they see is RMB appreciation of the Olympic economy, China's high economic growth ....